Sales Tax Scaries 4: Nexus and Taxability
When Sales Tax Creeps Up on You
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For years experts have protected that one day ecommerce would surpass brick- and-mortar retail holiday sales.
Welcome to 2025’s holiday shopping season.
Season to date (Nov. 1 to Dec. 1), consumers have spent $137.4 billion online, up 7.2% year over year (YoY). News reports added that initial data from RetailNext, which measures real-time foot traffic in physical stores, found that U.S. Black Friday traffic fell 3.6% compared with 2024. Another retail monitor, Sensormatic Solutions, found that in-store retail visits have dipped 2.1% Y.
Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales (excluding autos) were up 4.1% on Black Friday this year compared with Black Friday 2024, according to Mastercard retail analysis (which measures in-store and online retail sales and is not adjusted for inflation – critics are in fact questioning this year’s banner numbers, claiming the that last 12 months’ inflation skews 2025 Cyber Week sales totals).
Consumers clicked away $14.25 billion online on Cyber Monday, up 7.1% YoY and a tick above industry analyst Adobe’s initial projections. Shoppers took advantage of discounts in electronics, toys, apparel, computers, television, furniture, appliances and sporting goods.
Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce, said U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online Friday, marking a 9.1% jump from last year. Traffic particularly piled up between the hours of 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. local time nationwide, when $12.5 million passed through online shopping carts every minute.
Nevertheless, Black Friday still outpaced Cyber Monday for the second year in a row, Adobe said. Salesforce, which tracks digital spending from a range of retailers, further estimated that Black Friday online sales totaled $18 billion in the U.S. and $79 billion globally. Shopify told news outlets that its merchants raked in a record $6.2 billion in sales worldwide (a peak of $5.1 million per minute) with hot categories including cosmetics and clothing.
Not long ago, the Friday after Thanksgiving brought images of mobbed malls and flash sale stampedes. Stores aren’t exactly desolate now, but change seems to be coming.
According to MasterCard, ecommerce retail sales (excluding autos) on Black Friday jumped 10.4% over 2024, compared with in-store sales’ +1.7% YoY. Among highlights, online spending on apparel climbed 6.1% compared with in-stores’ +5.4%, and spending on jewelry sales rose online 4.2%, opposed to just 2.74% in-store.
Vendors can’t rest easy just hours after Turkey Day, but they can learn lessons useful throughout the year. Take the hot trends of Cyber Monday 2025: Overall, bargains, discounts and flexible payment methods loom as more important to buyers, especially online ones.
More than half of online spending (57%) was driven by three categories: electronics ($3.7 billion, up 12.8% YoY), apparel ($2.6 billion, up 5.2% YoY), and furniture ($1.8 billion, up 5.4% YoY). Other standout categories included cosmetics ($0.5 billion, up 7.0% YoY), and sporting goods ($0.6 billion, up 6.0% YoY). Remember, however, to balance that against this years inflation rate of some 2.3% to 3%.)
Other hot sellers on Cyber Monday included digital cameras, luggage sets, fitness trackers, televisions, robot and cordless vacuums, massage guns, countertop ice machines, active wear and athleisure and heated blankets.
“This year’s surge in online shopping showcases how technology is transforming the way consumers pay,” MasterCard noted. For example:
Mobile shopping has driven a 52.8% share of online sales so far, representing $73.7 billion in spending and up 7.2% YoY. (Wise vendors should make a priority out of a site that’s easy to use on a cellphone.)
Shopping services powered by artificial intelligence and social media advertising have also influenced what consumers buy. AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) increased 670% during Cyber Week around Thanksgiving. These search services were used most in categories including video games, appliances, electronics, toys and personal care products.
Mastercard research also shows that 72% of consumers shop on unfamiliar websites, even though one in four claim to avoid them. The possibility of fraud is mushrooming and shoppers’ grows as well during the holiday season, so vendors are advised to make their sites look as clean, clear and straightforward as possible.
The biggest red flags to consumers, even if the site is perfectly legit, include prices that seem too good to be true, poor spelling or grammar and requests for unnecessary personal information.
If you think your business may be unprepared for this year’s holiday buyer rush and its sales tax obligations, contact TaxConnex. TaxConnex provides services to become your outsourced sales tax department. Get in touch to learn more!
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